Currency wars: consider the impacts. Total, Fiat and Infineon
Amidst the euphoria of rising equity prices, something crazy is happening in FX. Consider, the € is +29% vs. Yen, +11% vs. USD and +10% vs. GBP since July. These are simply enormous moves, very...
View ArticleTrader Watch: Petrofac, AMEC, Technip, Roche, Fiat, Imperial Tobacco
i) Saipem, the high margin business seems to have walked… but to where? Amec or Petrofac? Both are in our HQGB, and both remain buys. Down 6% looks a complete over reaction for PFC. Add ii) High...
View ArticleFiat: remains sellers
We are still not convinced Fiat is investable, especially at current levels. Sure, the pension deficit was the main change reported yesterday, which was a negative but should not have been a major...
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Euro impacts: what to avoid?
“Sell low-value add exporters with large € cost bases”. Riccardo has a sell on K+S. They fit the bill of low-value add commodity producer with large Euro cost base. As does Fiat, Peugeot, RDSA, Total,...
View ArticleAutos: another data point suggests rate of change is slowing; F, BMW
U.S. autos average ‘days-to-turn’ in Jan rose to 62, the highest since Aug. 2009 (Edmunds.com data). “Automakers are going to have to do something to grease the wheels, and that comes in the form of...
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Japanese competition has G20 support, negative F, ML, BMW, SGO, IFX, MAERSKB
The one clear outcome from the G20 is the Japanese will continue to be allowed to devalue their currency in pursuit of ‘economic-growth’ (why? because the US needs a strong ally in Asia). In other...
View ArticleIn a world of uncertainty, buy consistency, buy aviate’s HQGB
When this election is finally resolved Italy have its 64th government since 1945 (America has only had 44 president’s since inception), and this one can’t govern. Either a coalition with opposition...
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Competitive threats from the YEN
We think the YEN falls much further, and the competitive threats from Japanese exporters (notably those in the Auto Industry) will increase (see Bridgestone and Japanese Auto Sector today). It seems...
View ArticleCurrency Wars work, just ask Ferrari
Ferrari registrations in Japan surged to the highest in 12 years amid growing optimism Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s push to weaken the yen will help boost the world’s third-biggest economy....
View ArticleKamikaze Basket: reminder of stocks at risk of Japan/Yen competition
European stocks we think most exposed to Japanese competition, include: Fiat, Peugeot, Michelin, Pirelli, St Gobain, Infineon, Maersk, H&M, Sandvik, SKF. Many also have large exposure to China as...
View ArticleBeware Brazil, the Real and exposures thereto
The BRLEUR remains weak despite Brazil raising rates. Expect more currency related downgrades. Santander, Edenred, Electrolux, Experian, Dufry, Pirelli, Fiat, Volvo, Man SE, Scania, Sodexo.
View ArticleBeware Brazil
We note Brazil fell on Friday and in Euros it remains at its lows for the move. This remains a large earnings risk for many corporates exposed, and we note late Sunday evening a $5bn food ingredient...
View ArticleMean-reversion as a trading strategy… continues
Mean reversion as we define by “investors closing underweights/structural shorts due to the lack of ‘new’ negatives justifying their positions”. The list of names to benefit from such continues to grow...
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Euro impacts: what to avoid?
“Sell low-value add exporters with large € cost bases”. Riccardo has a sell on K+S. They fit the bill of low-value add commodity producer with large Euro cost base. As does Fiat, Peugeot, RDSA, Total,...
View ArticleAutos: another data point suggests rate of change is slowing; F, BMW
U.S. autos average ‘days-to-turn’ in Jan rose to 62, the highest since Aug. 2009 (Edmunds.com data). “Automakers are going to have to do something to grease the wheels, and that comes in the form of...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Japanese competition has G20 support, negative F, ML, BMW, SGO, IFX, MAERSKB
The one clear outcome from the G20 is the Japanese will continue to be allowed to devalue their currency in pursuit of ‘economic-growth’ (why? because the US needs a strong ally in Asia). In other...
View ArticleIn a world of uncertainty, buy consistency, buy aviate’s HQGB
When this election is finally resolved Italy have its 64th government since 1945 (America has only had 44 president’s since inception), and this one can’t govern. Either a coalition with opposition...
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Thought for the day
Since first discussing an improving Europe (back in Q1) and the risk of ‘mean-reversion’ (a lack of new negatives forcing funds to cover/close large underweight bets) we have seen a large number of...
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UBS seem so convinced by Mr Hohn, they downgrade Fiat to Neutral
Reverse broking at its finest.
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Fiat (aviate Sell): cont
We can understand why Fiat is +30% from the Nov 2012 lows. With the challenges obvious for all to see, i.e. large gross and net debt, large pension deficit, negative FCF, no control over Chrysler’s...
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